Corona in 2025: Are We Ready for the Next Global Health Crisis?

Highlights Global COVID-19 activity has surged since mid-February 2025, with test positivity rates reaching 11%. New COVID-19 variant NB.1.8.1 is spreading rapidly across 22 countries. WHO adopted the world's first Pandemic Agreement in May 2025. Experts estimate a 47-57% probability of another deadly pandemic within 25 years.

As the world is entering its sixth year of living with COVID-19 and facing a stark contradiction, today the world is simultaneously more prepared and more vulnerable than ever. SARS-CoV-2 activity at the global level has been on the rise since the middle of February 2025, with the test-positivity rate approaching 11%, the highest since July 2024. Last year, the international community adopted the most sweeping measures ever to enhance pandemic preparedness, but experts stress that they exposed critical gaps across global defense systems. [1]

While most responsible authorities are following the surge in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, the phenomenon remains globally relevant. As we follow the rise in progress, one question comes to mind: Has COVID-19 prepared us against the next global health crisis?

The New Variant Risk: NB.1.8.1

Raising concerns about the current situation is the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant. As reported by WHO as[2] of 18 May 2025, a total of 518 NB. 1.8.1 cases have been reported in 22 countries. While still only comprising 10.7% of the global cases at the end of April, this represents a significant rise from 2.5% four weeks prior.

The global distribution of the variant has seen rapid development in China, Hong Kong, and other countries. Health experts have reported NB.1.8.1 as causing symptoms that look like

COVID infection, suggesting that while the variant is spreading, it doesn't appear to cause more severe illness than previous strains.

Historic Pandemic Agreement: A Step Forward

In a groundbreaking development for global health security, the world's first Pandemic Agreement was[5] formally adopted by the Member States of WHO in May 2025 by consensus. This historic accord now stands as the most important international cooperative framework for pandemic preparedness since the birth of WHO.

The agreement aims to enhance international cooperation and coordination in the following main areas:

Prevention and Preparedness: Improved surveillance for early detection of potential pandemic threats, mechanisms for data sharing among nations, and procedures to provide a rapid response deployment.

Equitable response: Ensuring that medical countermeasures, vaccines, and treatments are distributed in a fair and just way during health emergencies, especially for low- and middle-income countries that faced severe challenges earlier during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Reality The most sobering aspect of global health security is the statistical likelihood of future pandemics. The Center for Global Development assessed that there is a 47-57% chance of another fatal pandemic over the next 25 years. [4]This means today's young adults will likely face another pandemic of significant magnitude during their lifetimes. Current Status and Vulnerabilities

Public health experts[3]  describe COVID-19 as "a constant threat, but a manageable one." However, significant vulnerabilities persist:

Surveillance gaps: Many regions lack robust disease surveillance systems that can detect novel pathogens, allowing them to be mitigated before they acquire pandemic potential.

Manufacturing capacity: Global vaccine and therapeutic manufacturing is primarily concentrated in only a few countries. This creates bottlenecks in the response to crises.

According to professor of global health and medicine at SPH, Davidson Hamer, "The virus is still capable of evolving, and it’s going to remain a constant threat. But because so many people have had at least one infection and/ormultiple doses of vaccines, I think the severity of infection will generally remain relatively low."[6] 

Other challenges for long-term sustainability include

Dealing with threats of other infectious diseases Continued burden on healthcare workers Hesitancy to take vaccines Inflation and political instability The Path Forward

The question of “Are we ready for the next global health crisis?” has no definite answer. On the one hand, compared to 2020, we are more prepared due to technological advancements and the development of international cooperation schemes. On the other hand, the pandemic continues to be a pressing issue, as the 5th wave, marked by the emergence of the NB. 1.8.1 variant, has recently occurred.

Hence, pandemic preparedness is not an ultimate feat but an unending process. The key factor for successful outcomes is the readiness for the collective implementation of permanent changes required for actual pandemic resilience.