The US presidential election is at its climax, with nearly every poll predicting the contest between vice president Kamala Harris and Republican hopeful Donald Trump to be close.
However, the results may not be known for days after the polls close, as one candidate may initially appear to be leading, only for the rival to narrow the margin as more votes are counted. While the election results are expected the next day, it may take longer than expected as different states starts counting votes at different times.
Like every presidential election, seven swing states are likely to decide the new president of the United States. Between November 6 and December 11, these states will certify election results. On December 17, electors will meet to cast their official votes. Congress will convene to count and confirm electoral votes on January 6, 2025, and the president-elect will be sworn in on January 20, 2025.
Swing states
The outcome will, in large part, depend on the results in seven swing states: Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Polls show a small gap between the supporters of Harris and Trump in these states. In 2020, all but one of these states went to Biden. This time, some of these states have introduced rules to avoid delays in the declaration of results. However, variation in the methods of casting and counting votes will remain a key factor in how quickly the final verdict is reached.
This election’s seven swing states are divided into two groups: the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt (also known as the "Blue Wall" states). The Sun Belt states are Nevada (6 electoral votes), Arizona (11), North Carolina (16), and Georgia (16). The Rust Belt states are Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), and Pennsylvania (19).
Too many ways to vote
Unlike many countries, the US electoral system offers voters various ways to cast their ballots. Counting of in-person votes cast on Election Day takes place the same day. However, some states also allow early in-person voting and early mail-in voting.
Different states have different rules for processing early ballots, which may impact the speed of result declarations. Some states will also accept overseas mail ballots and military ballots for a few days after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked by November 5.
Democratic voters generally show a greater preference for mail voting. They are also often concentrated in more populous urban areas, where counting tends to take longer. Republicans, on the other hand, are seen as more reluctant to use mail-in voting, partly due to a constant barrage of criticism of the system from Trump, who has in the past branded it as "corrupt." However, Trump supporters have closed the gap on early voting this time, aided by a reversal from their candidate, who has encouraged them to vote however they like.
Misleading early trends
As counting progresses, early trends may be reversed. This happened in 2020. Trump initially appeared to be leading on Election Night, but as counting continued, Democratic candidate Joe Biden overtook him. This led Trump to allege that the election had been stolen, citing delays in the vote count as evidence of fraud.
In 2020, some states experienced a "red mirage," in which Trump appeared to be leading on Election Night, before a "blue shift" saw Biden overtake him.
What if it’s a tie?
In the unlikely event that both candidates end up with 269 electoral votes, the election decision would move to Congress, as the US Constitution dictates. Specifically, the newly elected House of Representatives would choose the president, and the Senate would select the vice president.
A 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, though unlikely, could arise under specific scenarios. For example, if Harris wins key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Trump secures Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and a single congressional district in Nebraska, each candidate would end up with exactly 269 electoral votes. This deadlock would trigger a contingent election, as no candidate would have reached the required 270 out of 538 Electoral College votes.
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However, the results may not be known for days after the polls close, as one candidate may initially appear to be leading, only for the rival to narrow the margin as more votes are counted. While the election results are expected the next day, it may take longer than expected as different states starts counting votes at different times.
Like every presidential election, seven swing states are likely to decide the new president of the United States. Between November 6 and December 11, these states will certify election results. On December 17, electors will meet to cast their official votes. Congress will convene to count and confirm electoral votes on January 6, 2025, and the president-elect will be sworn in on January 20, 2025.
Swing states
The outcome will, in large part, depend on the results in seven swing states: Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Polls show a small gap between the supporters of Harris and Trump in these states. In 2020, all but one of these states went to Biden. This time, some of these states have introduced rules to avoid delays in the declaration of results. However, variation in the methods of casting and counting votes will remain a key factor in how quickly the final verdict is reached.
This election’s seven swing states are divided into two groups: the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt (also known as the "Blue Wall" states). The Sun Belt states are Nevada (6 electoral votes), Arizona (11), North Carolina (16), and Georgia (16). The Rust Belt states are Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), and Pennsylvania (19).
Too many ways to vote
Unlike many countries, the US electoral system offers voters various ways to cast their ballots. Counting of in-person votes cast on Election Day takes place the same day. However, some states also allow early in-person voting and early mail-in voting.
Different states have different rules for processing early ballots, which may impact the speed of result declarations. Some states will also accept overseas mail ballots and military ballots for a few days after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked by November 5.
Democratic voters generally show a greater preference for mail voting. They are also often concentrated in more populous urban areas, where counting tends to take longer. Republicans, on the other hand, are seen as more reluctant to use mail-in voting, partly due to a constant barrage of criticism of the system from Trump, who has in the past branded it as "corrupt." However, Trump supporters have closed the gap on early voting this time, aided by a reversal from their candidate, who has encouraged them to vote however they like.
Misleading early trends
As counting progresses, early trends may be reversed. This happened in 2020. Trump initially appeared to be leading on Election Night, but as counting continued, Democratic candidate Joe Biden overtook him. This led Trump to allege that the election had been stolen, citing delays in the vote count as evidence of fraud.
In 2020, some states experienced a "red mirage," in which Trump appeared to be leading on Election Night, before a "blue shift" saw Biden overtake him.
What if it’s a tie?
In the unlikely event that both candidates end up with 269 electoral votes, the election decision would move to Congress, as the US Constitution dictates. Specifically, the newly elected House of Representatives would choose the president, and the Senate would select the vice president.
A 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, though unlikely, could arise under specific scenarios. For example, if Harris wins key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Trump secures Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and a single congressional district in Nebraska, each candidate would end up with exactly 269 electoral votes. This deadlock would trigger a contingent election, as no candidate would have reached the required 270 out of 538 Electoral College votes.
Also see:
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