Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? 10 charts to explain who Indian-Americans are likely to vote for in 2024 US elections

With just days to go before the 2024 US presidential election, Indian-Americans, who constitute a significant and growing demographic in the electorate, are poised to play a crucial role in determining the outcome. With approximately 5.2 million Indian-Americans in the US, around 2.6 million of whom are eligible voters, their political preferences are increasingly influential, particularly in key battleground states.

Historically, Indian-Americans have leaned heavily towards the Democratic Party. However, recent surveys indicate a notable shift in this allegiance.

According to the 2024 Indian American Attitudes Survey, only 47% of Indian-Americans now identify as Democrats, a decline from 56% in 2020. This drop suggests a growing discontent with the Democratic Party, particularly among younger voters and men within the community.

The support for Kamala Harris , the Democratic candidate and current vice president of Indian descent, is also showing signs of decline.

Approximately 61% of Indian-American respondents expressed their intention to vote for Harris , which reflects a decrease of nearly 7 percentage points compared to Joe Biden 's support in 2020.

This trend may indicate that while Harris's candidacy initially galvanised enthusiasm among Indian-Americans, it has not sustained the same level of support as seen in previous elections.

Mixed bag of sentiments for Harris
The response of the Indian-American community to Kamala Harris is characterised by a blend of excitement about representation and cautious skepticism based on broader political concerns.

Many Indian-Americans are excited about Harris due to her Indian heritage, which resonates deeply within the community, but Indian-Americans do not vote as a monolithic bloc.

A significant portion remains aligned with the Republican Party, and many are not swayed by Harris’s candidacy. For instance, some Republican supporters express skepticism regarding her commitment to issues important to them, such as immigration reform.

Some community members also feel that Harris downplays her Indian identity in favor of her African American heritage.

As the election approaches, her ability to bridge these sentiments will be crucial in securing their votes amidst a diverse array of perspectives within this influential demographic.

Key poll issues

Several factors are also influencing the voting behavior of Indian Americans this election cycle:

• Healthcare and economy: Like many other voters, Indian-Americans prioritise domestic issues such as healthcare and economic stability over foreign policy concerns. These "kitchen table" issues dominate their electoral considerations.
• Abortion and reproductive rights: Abortion rights have emerged as a significant concern for many voters within this community, particularly among women. The survey indicates that reproductive rights rank as a vital issue for Indian Americans, influencing their support for candidates like Harris.
• Gender divide: A pronounced gender gap exists within voting preferences. While 67% of Indian-American women plan to vote for Harris, only 53% of men express similar intentions. This division highlights differing priorities between genders, with men increasingly leaning towards Republican candidates like Donald Trump .

Increasing Republican interest
Interestingly, there is a growing interest among Indian-Americans in Republican candidates.

Support for Trump has risen to 31%, reflecting a modest increase compared to previous elections. Factors contributing to this shift include:

• Perception of economic policies: Some Indian-American voters are drawn to Republican economic policies that emphasize lower taxes and business-friendly regulations.
• Cultural resonance: Trump's strong stance on immigration and his populist rhetoric may resonate with certain segments of the Indian-American community, particularly younger men who are increasingly aligning with conservative values.

How Indian-Americans are likely to vote
The study suggests that the Indian-American community continues to show strong support for the Democratic Party, particularly for candidates like Kamala Harris, but that there are notable shifts that could influence electoral outcomes.

The decline in Democratic identification and the rising interest in Republican candidates, especially among younger men, suggest a potential realignment that both parties must heed.

• Democratic commitment declines: Indian Americans remain predominantly Democratic, with 47% identifying as Democrats, a decrease from 56% in 2020. The proportion of independents has increased, indicating a shift in political alignment within the community.
• Support for Kamala Harris: 61% of registered Indian American voters plan to support Kamala Harris in the upcoming election, while 32% intend to vote for Donald Trump. This marks a modest increase in Republican support compared to previous elections.
• Emerging gender gap: A significant gender gap exists in voting preferences, with 67% of Indian American women supporting Harris, compared to only 53% of men. Conversely, 22% of women and 39% of men plan to vote for Trump, highlighting differing priorities among genders.
• Mixed views on Indian-American Republicans: Indian-Americans generally hold lukewarm views towards prominent Indian-American Republicans like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy , indicating a lack of enthusiasm for Republican candidates despite some engagement from the party.
• Abortion as a key issue: Abortion and reproductive rights are crucial issues for Indian-Americans this election cycle, ranking it as their second-most-important policy concern, especially among Democrats and women.
• Policy discrepancies drive Republican disadvantage: The Republican Party's struggles with Indian-American voters stem from policy misalignments, particularly regarding issues like minority rights and abortion, which many community members find incompatible with Republican stances.

As Indian-Americans solidify their role as a pivotal voting bloc, their decisions in the 2024 elections will not only impact local and national races but also reflect broader trends in American politics, making it essential for candidates to understand and address the unique perspectives of the influential community.