Count me in, count me out: US elections on knife's edge on day of polling

TOI Correspondent from Washington: The six registered voters in Dixville Notch -- a small outpost in New Hampshire that attracts national attention by voting first at midnight on Election Day -- split their ballots 3-3 for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris respectively. The equal divide attested to a presidential election that pundits and pollsters have variously characterized as tied, deadlocked, a deadheat, a toss-up, 50:50, a coin toss, and a neck and neck race.

With America's neck on the line, more than 80 million people are expected to stream to polling stations on Tuesday, another 80 million already having cast their ballots in early voting. Both sides strained every nerve and sinew to get out the vote, campaigning past midnight on Election Day -- Trump ending a rally close to 2 a.m on Tuesday in Michigan, and Harris also finishing up late in Pennsylvania. Both looked drained.

Harris wheeled out entertainers Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey in her female-oriented finale, while the MAGA supremo, whose wife Melania and daughter Ivanka were conspicuously absent at his Women for Trump rally, found support from Elon Musk and Joe Rogan, bros who put their money and mouth behind Trump in an election eve podcast endorsing him.

In an election that clearly became genderized with every passing day, the Harris campaign is taking heart from the 53-44 female to male turnout in early voting and a poll in Iowa that indicated older women of 65+ and independent women are backing her heavily. Trump's male stormtroopers are expected to charge to polling stations on Tuesday to stem the tide, in keeping with his exhortation to "swamp the vote" and make his victory "too big to rig."

After the shock setback to Hillary Clinton in 2016 on Election Day, on the eve of which she was assessed with 95 percent chance of winning but lost the race in battleground states even though she won almost 3 million more popular votes, the Harris campaign is taking nothing for granted despite several positive last minute signs, including women breaking "bigly" for her. She could win 10 million more popular votes nationwide, but the number that matters is 270 -- the electoral college votes needed to win the Presidency.

With each side assured of close to 200 electoral votes from states that are solidly red (Republican) or blue (Democrat), the real fight centers on seven "battleground" states -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- that together account for 93 electoral votes. Both candidates have expended almost all their energy and lolly campaigning in these states.

While most states in the eastern seaboard finish voting by 7 p.m EST (530 am Wednesday IST), the first vote counts/leads are expected at around 10 pm EST (8.30 am IST). Typically, US TV networks "call" a state for a candidate quite early in the counting process if the lead appears substantial and insurmountable in a state that had traditionally supported one party or the other.

So if Maryland, which is traditionally Democrat, or South Carolina, which is traditionally Republican, shows a lead of say 10 per cent plus for the respective candidate, the state is quickly "called" for a candidate early in the counting process. But if the margin in Iowa -- where most polls showed Trump at 10+ and one late, but well-regarded poll showed Kamala at 3+ -- is narrow, network pollsters hold their call.

Things will grind to a halt in some battleground states, notably Pennsylvania, where sorting of mail-in ballots begins only on election day (rules in other states allow early sorting) and where counting and final results are expected to take 24-48 hours. Pennsylvania has 67 counties, and Trump is expected to comfortably win more than 50 predominantly white, rural counties, establishing a lead of around 500,000 from this “Trump territory” where fewer votes per county is counted quickly. Democrats typically close the gap in and around urban Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, whose more numerous votes take longer to count.

Democrat activists expect Trump to claim victory (backed by rightwing media megaphones) on the basis of such leads and then throw sand in the counting process by claiming “voter fraud” as votes from urban areas come in. Similar scenarios are expected to unfold in Georgia and Michigan, where Democrat votes are concentrated in urban sprawls around Atlanta and Detroit.