Bihar elections 2025: Will RJD-JD(U) hold their decades-long grip? Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj stakes its claim

NEW DELHI: For nearly three decades, Bihar has been dominated by socialist forces, with Lalu Prasad ’s RJD and Nitish Kumar ’s JD(U) shaping the state’s political landscape. Since 1990, these two stalwarts of the JP movement have kept national parties on the sidelines. Ahead of the 2025 elections, however, a new narrative is emerging. Prashant Kishor ’s Jan Suraaj is attempting, perhaps for the first time, to challenge the decades-old socialist discourse and offer an alternative vision for Bihar.

New political experiment in old school Bihar?

Kishor-led Jan Suraaj has opened the doors to a third-front contest, challenging both Nitish Kumar-led NDA and the Mahagathbandhan , now fronted by Lalu’s son, Tejashwi Yadav . Notably, Jan Suraaj may be the only Bihar-based party contesting all 243 seats.

Could this be the start of a new political mood in Bihar? The party is staking its claim on issues like employment, education, and migration, moving away from the traditional caste-centered politics that have dominated the state for decades. Jan Suraaj can be now viewed as a party of parallel politics or alternative politics, offering voters a local option beyond the familiar two fronts.

'Jan Suraaj could shake both RJD & NDA'

On being asked by TOI about Jan Suraaj chief Kishor’s efforts and whether he could challenge Bihar’s two-horse race, political analyst Kumar Vijay said: "Prashant Kishor has emerged as a significant factor in Bihar elections. Wherever he fields Muslim-Yadav candidates, he will dent the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, and wherever he fields upper-caste candidates, he will impact the NDA. He will certainly be a strong factor for both factions."

On whether his issues will translate into votes, Vijay added: "The issues he is raising are reaching the masses, but how they convert into votes remains to be seen on the D-Day."

Addressing Kishor’s decision not to contest the polls, Vijay drew a parallel with current CM Nitish Kumar, who also doesn’t contest assembly elections and remains an MLC: "His exit won’t really affect Jan Suraaj’s experiment or harm its prospects. It doesn’t carry much weight. People in Bihar are politically aware; they will decide quietly, and it’s difficult to gauge public mood on the roads."

Strategist turned political player

This time, Kishor is himself in the fray as the leader of the party he launched last year, Jan Suraaj, aiming for an upset akin to AAP’s shock victory in Delhi in 2015.

That may sound far-fetched, yet PK can hardly be faulted for lack of effort. He has travelled across Bihar, drawing on his years of campaign experience for others, and launched an ambitious drive that takes direct aim at the entrenched political class.

Fatigue from the old guards?

Fed up with Congress rule in the early 1990s, Bihar turned to Lalu Prasad and RJD, reshaping politics under the influence of Mandal-era dynamics. Lalu-Rabri’s tenure of over a decade entrenched the family-first ethos, but was often criticised for corruption and poor law-and-order, earning the nickname “jungleraaj.”

Then came Nitish Kumar, who emerged as Bihar’s longest-serving CM. Yet, despite reforms and initiatives, the state remained one of India’s most backward, struggling with GDP per capita, poverty, and development indicators, creating fertile ground for voters seeking alternatives.

Kishor as the second choice for CM?

A recent C-Voter survey revealed that Prashant Kishor is the second most preferred leader for the chief ministerial post, behind Tejashwi Yadav and ahead of Nitish Kumar, signalling significant public confidence in his leadership potential.

Confidence over contest?

Prashant Kishor confirmed he will not contest the upcoming assembly elections, saying this was for the “greater good” of his party. Speaking to PTI, he said,

“If I were to contest, it would distract me from necessary organisational work.”

He added that Chanchal Singh will contest against Tejashwi Yadav in Raghopur instead.

10 seats or more than 150? PK’s all-or-nothing gamble

Kishor’s own prediction is audacious: “I can say with certainty that we will either win handsomely or receive a drubbing. I have been stating on record that I expect a tally of either fewer than 10 seats or more than 150 seats. There is no possibility of anything in between.”

Despite stepping aside, he exudes confidence: “We will either win handsomely or face a complete drubbing. There’s no middle ground. A tally below 150 will be a defeat for me.”

'Mungerilal ke haseen sapne?'

The reactions from rival parties have been scathing. RJD claimed Kishor has “accepted defeat for his Jan Suraaj Party even before going to the battlefield,” while BJP said, “Kishor realised he would not win elections.” JD(U) called it a “humiliation for his party workers.”

RJD’s Mrityunjay Tiwary said, “Kishor’s tyre has been flattened,” BJP’s Niraj Kumar added, “his bubble burst even before the elections,” and JD(U)’s Neeraj Kumar said, “He has run away before the electoral battle.” Union minister Giriraj Singh mocked the venture as “Mungerilal ke haseen sapne,” calling Jan Suraaj a “vote katwa” and “RJD’s B team.”

Can Jan Suraaj really disrupt the two-horse race?

Observers note that PK’s Brahmin background and leadership style could appeal to upper-caste youth who feel excluded in Bihar politics. Yet the state’s political structure remains largely bipolar, meaning Jan Suraaj risks being seen as a spoiler rather than a serious contender.

A top poll strategist-turned-politician has surprisingly opted out of contesting his party’s first election, raising questions about his approach.

While NDA has mostly finalised seat-sharing, the Mahagathbandhan’s candidate announcements remain a bit indecisive on some seats over seat-sharing discussions.

Bihar now faces not just an RJD vs JD(U)/NDA battle, but a potential challenge from Jan Suraaj, testing voter appetite for a new political alternative.