Beyond Operation Sindhu: India uneasy and anxious in the Gulf

The 12-day war in West Asia has come as a rude shock to expats in the region. Nearly 9 million Indians work and live there — making up the backbone of labour forces in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar.

With US military bases dotting the region, and Iran’s symbolic but audacious strike at the largest US base in Qatar, their sense of security too has taken a hit. Despite the US-brokered ceasefire, the situation remains volatile and anxiety levels are high. Few, if any, are betting on lasting peace.

Rumours of spies masquerading as tourists have added to their worries. Unconfirmed, unverified reports of several Indians having been rounded up in Iran and Qatar on suspicion of spying added to the uneasiness of the diaspora. Such reports or rumours, they fear, may increase the level of distrust and affect India’s image — and by extension, their standing.

“If Iran can attack US bases in Qatar, they can also attack other US bases in the [rest of the] Middle East. There is a lot of warmongering going on in this neighbourhood,” says a project engineer from Andhra Pradesh.

His sentiment is shared by others and the unease is palpable on the ground. A young techie working in Kuwait says, “It is like sitting on a live volcano. It can erupt at any moment. Our families are extremely concerned. The father of one of my colleagues is insisting he return to India.

“There is of course no question of giving up our jobs. What will we do back home?”

India managed to evacuate over 3,000 people from Iran and Jordan under Operation Sindhu. But this barely scratches the surface. The estimated number of Indian expats in the Gulf states ranges between 7 and 9 million.

Families of Indian workers, pilgrims worry about kin stranded in Israel, Iran

The UAE alone boasts a population of 8 million, with local Emiratis accounting for a bare one million and the rest from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries.

A messy Middle East

Talmeez Ahmed, a former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, says, “People’s apprehensions are understandable.”

“The earlier regional conflicts such as the Iran–Iraq war and the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, were contained geographically,” he adds. “Even in 2018–19, when oil tankers were attacked, it was feared this would develop into a regional crisis. But Iranians displayed strategic restraint and retreated.”

Ahmed believes there was no need for the US to get involved. Once the US attacked Iran, the latter was left with no option but to retaliate, he says. Targeting American assets in the region became legitimate and it complicated the peace process.

“It is obvious the Americans did not think it through,” he says.

Yet Saudi Arabia and Qatar have both protested at Doha against Iran’s attacks on the US base, with Saudi Arabia reportedly seeking US help to develop or station nuclear weapons as a deterrent to future interventions.

Round One to Iran, but the war for West Asia is far from over A disappointed diaspora

Did India miss an opportunity to position itself as a peacemaker in the region?

While there is a sense of relief over the suspension of hostilities, the diaspora is disappointed at the Indian government’s (non-)role in brokering the peace.

It is in India’s interest to ensure stability and peace in the region, especially because it enjoys good relations with the US, Israel as well as Iran.

Narendra Modi, they say, could have played a more meaningful role in the conflict, given that he enjoys good relations with all the countries involved in hostilities.

Instead, India’s backing of Israel has meant the undoing of decades of diplomatic efforts and the alienation of an old friend like Iran.

This does not bode well for the large Indian diaspora, who believe pursuing an autonomous policy in world politics would have served India’s interests more.

Caught in the crossfire

Indian expats in the Middle East remitted over $125 billion in 2023–24, and this is increasing annually.

An Indian rice exporter to the UAE, living in Dubai for the past two decades, said, “The working environment here is any day better than in India, but the present uncertainty does not bode well for us.”

A large number of Indians own property in Dubai. The number of rich Indians shifting to live and work there is also increasing.

The situation in Israel however, is completely different.

Following the attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023, Israel recruited several thousand construction workers from India to replace Palestinian workers. Estimates vary but the number of such workers largely from Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Delhi is anywhere between 11,000 and 18,000.

Indian workers in Israel: In the line of fire?

A former Indian diplomat says, “It was clear after the Hamas attack that the situation would get worse. Indian workers in Israel are reportedly being paid far less than the Palestinians and made to work longer.

“Sending them was always a putting them in danger, and yet the Haryana and UP governments actually encouraged and lured them with the jobs.”

With Iran having inflicted severe damage in Haifa, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, their future is now uncertain.

The conflict also generated unconfirmed reports that the workers were ill-treated and prevented from taking shelter in bunkers. While it is difficult to ascertain the truth, some videos did do the rounds showing Indians being asked to return to India.

Raju Nishad, working in Tel Aviv, admits that the last few weeks have been

quite harrowing. He, however, dismisses reports of ill-treatment. “We earn three times more in Israel than what we would in India,” he says.

With military censorship in place, none are willing to speak out against the Israeli authorities.

Some 35,000 Indian nationals are currently living in Israel. While these construction workers have no plans to move out, as many as 300 students, caregivers and techies opted to take the land route via Jordan or Egypt to return to India.

With jobs hard to get back home, Indians are unlikely to be deterred from venturing into conflict zones.

What is of utmost concern is whether the Indian authorities are doing enough to take care of their interests.

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