MPs on fence ahead of crunch welfare vote as 'costs facing disabled people soar'

Disabled people could face extra costs of almost £15,000 a year by the end of the decade, grim research shows, as the row over the Government’s welfare cuts drags on.

Dozens of Labour MPs are still said to be on the fence about whether to support plans to reform the welfare system in a crunch vote on Tuesday.

Many MPs spent the weekend mulling over a major package of concessions offered by Keir Starmer last week. In a dramatic climbdown on Thursday, the PM agreed to protect all existing claimants from losing Personal Independence Payments (PIP).

Plans to tighten eligibility will now only apply to new claimants from November 2026, in a reprieve to around 370,000 people who were due to lose around £4,150-a-year. And existing recipients of the health element of Universal Credit will have their incomes protected in real terms.

Plans for a major review of PIP will also be set out today, which will be co-produced by disabled people, organisations who represent them and MPs. It is hoped that the terms of the review - which will place disabled people at the heart of it - will persuade nervy MPs that the legislation is now heading in the right direction.

Meanwhile, research released by disability charity Scope has estimated the extra monthly costs related to a person’s disability have now risen to £1,095. Even for those who receive benefits, there is an average shortfall of £630 every month, as the payments don’t go far enough, Scope said.

The Disability Price Tag report, which is released annually by Scope and does not take into account the welfare reforms, estimates this is set to rise to £1,224 by 2029/30, totalling almost £15,000 a year. It would mean those with a disability would see a £704 shortfall in their benefits income by 2029, the study said.

The charity said the Government's concessions “will just create a two-tier system, where huge numbers of disabled people face the disability price tag with little or no support from PIP”.

READ MORE: Keir Starmer warned of 'two tier' benefit system as he says U-turn 'strikes right balance'

Meanwhile Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham told an event at Glastonbury Festival that MPs should still vote against the welfare bill tomorrow. “It’s simply wrong and I will never, ever support what is being proposed,” he said.

“This reminds me why I left Westminster because the default mindset of the two parties is to be tough on benefits. That mentality creates a deficit model that is distrustful of people… a system I know many disabled people fear interacting with."

Mr Starmer faced a humiliating defeat in the Commons after more than 120 Labour MPs signed an amendment to block his welfare plans last week. The Prime Minister this weekend said he wished he had reached a “better position” with Labour MPs earlier over welfare cuts but was distracted by international affairs, which he admitted was not an “excuse”.

In an interview with the Sunday Times, he said: “I’d have liked to get to a better position with colleagues sooner than we did — that’s for sure. I’m putting this as context rather than excuse: I was heavily focused on what was happening with Nato and the Middle East all weekend. I turned my attention fully to it [the welfare bill] when I got back from Nato on Wednesday night.”

Health Secretary Wes Streeting stopped short of saying he was confident the Government will win tomorrow’s vote. But he said that the changes "have put us in a much better position".

"As a result of the changes, it means anyone watching this morning who's in receipt of personal independence payments now has the peace of mind of knowing that their situation is protected," he said.

Labour MP and former Cabinet minister Louise Haigh meanwhile said she planned to back the Bill but needed to see the full detail of the new plans today. She also said it was a moment for the Government to "reset”.

"I think this is a moment and an opportunity to reset the Government's relationship with the British public and to move forward, to adopt a different approach to our economic policy and our political strategy," she told the BBC.

But disabled Labour MP Olivia Blake said the proposed concessions had been "plucked from the air". Echoing Scope, she told The Guardian: "This could form an unethical two-tier system that treats two people with the exact same injury or illness differently.”

Fresh details on the welfare reforms will be published on Monday, including the terms of reference for a review, led by Disability Minister Stephen Timms, of the PIP assessment.

Alongside the review, draft regulations for the new Right to Try Guarantee will be laid in Parliament. It will enshrine in law the right for people receiving health and disability benefits to try work without fear of reassessment.

The Department for Work and Pensions also said £300million will be brought forward over the next three years to help disabled people and those with health conditions get into work. It will mean the total employment support will have increased by £2.2billion over four years.

Officials say that the Bill, while criticised for having tightened some benefits eligibility, will protect the most vulnerable by uprating of Universal Credit standard rate. Nearly four million households will see an income boost with the main rate of UC set to increase above inflation every year for the next four years - estimated to be worth £725 by 2029/30 for a single household. This is said to be the largest, permanent real-terms increase to basic out of work support since 1980, according to the IFS.

James Taylor, executive director of strategy at Scope, said: “Life costs an enormous amount more when you’re disabled. Whether it’s higher electricity bills because of medical equipment to power. Or higher heating bills because of health conditions affected by the cold.

“The concessions put forward by government will just create a two-tier system, where huge numbers of disabled people face the disability price tag with little or no support from PIP. The government must change course on these catastrophic cuts now, and properly co-produce with disabled people on how to reform our welfare system.”

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said the changes were about “delivering a fairer, more compassionate system”.

“We must build a welfare system that provides security for those who cannot work and the right support for those who can,” she said. “Too often, disabled people feel trapped—worried that if they try to work, they could lose the support they depend on.

“That is why we are taking action to remove those barriers, support disabled people to live with dignity and independence, and open routes into employment for those who want to pursue it.

“This is about delivering a fairer, more compassionate system as part of our Plan for Change which supports people to thrive, whatever their circumstances.”

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