Will peace prevail in Middle East after 'Oct 7 attack architect' Sinwar's death?

In what can be a considered as a major victory for Israeli side amid its war with Gaza and Hamas, the fate of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar seemed entwined with the fate of the war in the Gaza Strip. With his death, the possibility of reaching towards a deal seems possible but the future remains uncertain as Hamas' reels in death of its chief.

Sinwar orchestrated the Hamas assault on Israel last October that killed up to 1,200 people, captured some 250 hostages and prompted a devastating Israeli retaliation that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and laid waste to much of Gaza.

He was considered the driving force behind Hamas' refusal to surrender, even as Israel's airstrikes and ground invasion devastated the territory and displaced most of its population. And his survival made it impossible for Israel to declare victory -- living proof that Hamas, though decimated, remained undefeated.

Sinwar, who was appointed head of Hamas after its previous leader was killed in a blast in July blamed on Israel, spent years building up Hamas' military strength and is believed to have devised the Oct. 7, 2023, attack.

Analysts quoted by news agency AP say Sinwar's killing has presented Israel, which has struggled to articulate an exit strategy from Gaza, with an off-ramp to end the war. "This would really be the cherry on the icing of the cake for Israel," said Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an associate fellow of the International Security Program at the Chatham House think tank in London. "It should be easier to reach a deal."

Hope for ceasefire in Middle East?
Now, after Sinwar's killing, a route toward some kind of truce in Gaza seems slightly more navigable, since it gives Israel and Hamas a pretext to soften their stance, according to Israeli and Palestinian analysts. But major obstacles remain -- and any solution in Gaza will have only a limited impact on the broader conflict between Israel and Hamas' regional allies, including Hezbollah.

Negotiations for a cease-fire and a deal to release the hostages stalled partly because Sinwar held out for a permanent agreement allowing Hamas to retain power in a postwar Gaza. His maximalist stance was incompatible with that of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who sought only a temporary truce that would allow Israel to return to battle within weeks to prevent Hamas' long-term survival.

With the architect of the Oct. 7 attacks eliminated, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could now tell Israelis that one of the war's aims has been reached. Politically, that might allow him to be more flexible on a cease-fire deal that ends the war in exchange for hostages - a condition he has so far refused to accept, at least in part, critics say, because it could threaten his rule.

Sinwar's death could present conditions to end war

Analysts said the achievement was such a gamechanger that it was an opportunity for Israel to signal that it is ready to end the fighting further afield in the region, including in Lebanon where Israel is battling Hezbollah. "The opportunity to end the war entirely, as well as in Lebanon, ... it is entirely in our hands," Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's National Security Council, told Israeli Channel 12 News, saying Israel must use Sinwar's death to present its conditions for ending the wars on both fronts.

'Hamas' principles to remain same'

Fuad Khuffash, a Palestinian analyst close to Hamas told NYT that Sinwar's death would deal the group a crushing blow but would not necessarily change its main negotiating positions.

Hamas is "a group built on individuals. If you lose someone of Sinwar's stature, it's not always easy to find someone quickly with the same strength," said Khuffash. But, he added, "Hamas will continue according to the same principles -- if they don't stiffen their position. Whoever replaces this leader will continue his ideological line."

For example, Hamas' remaining leadership is still unlikely to withdraw its demand for a permanent truce or to accept permanent Israeli occupation of parts of Gaza, according to Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a political research group in Ramallah, West Bank.